Monday, May 16, 2011

Huckabee out of pres. race: what does this mean?

Former Governor of Arkansas and Fox News Show Host Mike Huckabee declared last Saturday that he will not run for the GOP pres. nomination in 2012 like he did in '08. This leaves a large chunk of GOP voters up for grabs. Huckabee was a front-runner and polled well in early states and in the general election. So, who can win over Huckabee's former supporters? Well, I believe his exit from the race best benefits Former Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty, who is a evangelical christian and social conservative who now has a strong chance of winning the Iowa cacus. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, and Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum are also likely to benefit. These folks benefit because Huckabee's supporters were generally either social conservatives and a few tea party supporters. Huckabee's withdrawl does not affect the candidacy of Former Governor Mitt Romney, Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Representative Ron Paul, Former Governor Gary Johnson, or Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich in that they will win over former Huckabee supporters, but these candidates would likely benefit from the divide Huckabee's withdrawal brings. In short, the big benefactor from this is Tim Pawlenty with regards to who will win over Huckabee voters, but both Romney and Rudy benefit from the divide in the GOP.