Friday, January 13, 2012
Can 2012 turn into 1996 for politics?
The year is 1996. Bob Dole, Phil Gramm, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander, Morry Taylor, Richard Lugar, and others sought to unseat President Bill Clinton after candidates such as Colin Powell and Former Vice President Dan Quayle sat out. Sadly, the 2012 republican race looks a lot like 1996. Collin Powell is a moderate republican who decided to sit out of presidential politics in '96. Powell had been considered a national hero. Sounds a lot like Rudy Giuliani. Former Vice President Dan Quayle was a favorite amongst certain aspects of the conservative movement, but the main stream media had considered him "dumb" and not electable. Sounds like Sarah Palin. George W. Bush of Texas had just been elected Governor in 1994, and as the articulate son of a Former President, he was seen as a rising star of the party. Sounds like Chris Christie (though Christie's father was not President.) Granted this tale has no Mike Huckabee, who surely would have won Iowa and South Carolina had he run in '12, but thats okay for the purpose of this comparison because Huckabee probably would win the presidency in 2012. While not a favorite of conservatives, Bob Dole had always been considered acceptable to them. Though he was the odds-on favorite for the nomination, he still faced obstacles. Sounds like Mitt Romney. Phil Gramm had won fame from working closely with Senator Warren Rudman and President Reagan on fundamental tax reform. Gramm, a favorite with conservatives, sought to change Washington from within and had some good results. Sounds like Newt Gingrich. Steve Forbes had spent his life outside politics and his main agenda as a presidential candidate was fundamental tax reform. Sounds like Herman Cain. Pat Buchanan took an isolationist and protectionist approach to policy. He had, in 1992, been a leader of a movement known as the "Buchanan brigade" and came back stronger in 1996. Sounds like Ron Paul. Lamar Alexander was a conservative Former Governor of Tennessee and Secretary of Education. On paper, it looked like he could give Dole a challenge. But he did not, perhaps due to his soft-spoken demeanor. Sounds like Tim Pawlenty. Morry Taylor had tried to run for President as a well-to-do guy who worked hard and wanted to appeal to blue collar voters. Sounds like Rick Santorum. Finally, Alan Keyes ran for President as a solid conservative, but he had a record of saying controversial things. Sounds like Michele Bachmann. In 1996, Bob Dole won the GOP nomination with only minor challenges from Gramm, Forbes, and Buchanan. In fact, Gramm had won no primaries, and Forbes and Buchanan had only won a limited number. The general election campaign was between Senator Dole and President Bill Clinton. Clinton had seen his party lose the 1994 elections, but they came back in 1996 despite republicans winning in the house and senate that year. Will history repeat itself in 2012?
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