South Carolina Primary Preview

Money, momentum, message, name, network, and staff all matter in an election. Rick Santorum's message helped propel him to a virtual tie in the Iowa caucus with Mitt Romney, who has enjoyed money, name recognition, and a strong network of staff. Romney picked up momentum in Iowa, and his momentum helped propel him to a big victory reminiscent of John McCain's 2000 victory in New Hampshire. Going into South Carolina, Romney is the only candidate with money, momentum, message, name, and network. Newt Gingrich has a clear message and he has improved his network in the past weeks. Rick Santorum has a message as well, but he lacks funding and a network. Rick Perry has money, but thats all. Ron Paul does not have broad momentum beyond his dedicated supporters, but he does have money. Jon Huntsman's message resonates with newspapers more than voters. Polling has indicated that South Carolina is a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. If Romney should win the South Carolina primary, it would give him a tremendous advantage towards the nomination not because of delegates won, but because of momentum and an influx of support from across the nation as he would be seen as the de facto republican nominee. If Newt Gingrich were to win South Carolina, he would re-gain momentum and be seen as Romney's sole conservative challenger, where as both he and Santorum have shared the spotlight since Santorum's Iowa performance. It is likely that after South Carolina, Governor Rick Perry, a 2nd-tier candidate as it is, will drop out. Rick Santorum will likely fade after only performing well in Iowa. Jon Huntsman is likely to stay in the race until Florida. Ron Paul is running in a world of his own. South Carolina is a must-win for Newt Gingrich. If Romney should win South Carolina, he will be the nominee. If Gingrich wins South Carolina, then conservatives across the country will see Gingrich as the not-Romney and give him a 2nd look, helping the Former House Speaker to surge in Florida and later, southern states and large states such as Missouri, New York, California, and Texas. South Carolina has picked the GOP nominee for years and it looks like that trend is set to continue. However, both Romney and Gingrich have things to be optimistic and scared of. Mitt Romney has momentum from a surprising well performance in Iowa and a big win in New Hampshire to carry him in South Carolina. Furthermore, while the conservative vote is split nationally, Romney has the support of moderate republicans and in South Carolina, independents can vote in the GOP primary. However, polls in South Carolina have shown Newt Gingrich competitive with Romney, and if conservatives have a strong showing during the primary, it could be bad news for Mitt. Newt Gingrich has been a favorite amongst tea party voters and grassroots conservatives. However, one has to ask if his personal life will play a role in South Carolina. Gingrich has been married three times where as Romney has been married to the same woman for 4 decades. On the flip side of this argument, will heavily protestant South Carolina vote for a mormon? It probably won't be an issue with a majority of voters, but you never know. Both Gingrich and Romney can examine history, and be optimistic. Romney can look back just 4 years. John McCain won New Hampshire and took his momentum to win a narrow victory in South Carolina. Newt Gingrich must look back further. In 1976, President Gerald R. Ford beat Ronald Reagan in both Iowa and New Hampshire. However, Reagan came back and won South Carolina. Though Ford won the republican nomination, Reagan was very much in the race until the republican national convention. Perhaps if Reagan won two or three more states, he would have won in 1976. Gingrich can look at that. No matter what, South Carolina is a must win for both Romney and Gingrich. Santorum and Perry must place in the top 3. Huntsman must do well enough to carry him to Florida. It is hard to tell what Dr. Ron Paul wishes to accomplish, but my guess is he is going to focus on winning a majority of tea party voters in South Carolina.