South Carolina Primary: A defining moment

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the top in polls in just five days leading up to the South Carolina GOP primary. Gingrich, whose debate performances on Tuesday and Thursday nights helped him, has accumulated a loyal following of grassroots supporters made up of conservatives and tea party voters a like. Both Gingrich and fellow candidate Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who enjoys the support from the moderate and center-right of the party, are looking good on the trail. For Gingrich, its the beginning of what he hopes will be a comeback. Since late November, the nomination has been in site for a man who has had a lengthy career in the public spotlight. For Mitt Romney, its momentum off a big win in New Hampshire. Romney began to try to get his way into the public eye in 2006, and by the fall of 2007 he became well known. After conceding the GOP presidential race to John McCain, Romney was a fixture on the campaign trail for republicans in 2010, and when Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee declared in May 2011 he would not seek the nomination, Romney became the front-runner. While both men have things to be happy about, fellow candidate Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum does not. Santorum spent most of his time in 2011 campaigning in Iowa, but history shows that campaigning only in Iowa does not pay off. In fact, most candidates who stick to only Iowa don't win Iowa, a trend Santorum successfully ducked. However, he does not have the support in place elsewhere. People know Gingrich from his time as House Speaker, and they know Romney from his bid in 2008. But Rick Santorum is a little-known Former U.S. Senator to the mild political observer. South Carolina will define the future of the republican primary. If Newt Gingrich wins, both he and Mitt Romney are likely to have a mud-fest moving towards Florida, Arizona, and Minnesota. It should be assumed that Romney will win Nevada and his native state of Michigan, though John McCain did win Michigan in 2000 and lose it to Romney in 2008. However, unlike McCain, Romney is from Michigan. As far as Nevada, Romney benefits from a large mormon population. Perhaps Newt Gingrich can pull an upset in those places, but the Former Speaker would probably be more successful in Arizona, Minnesota, and Florida. If Romney wins South Carolina, there is almost no way forward for the other candidates. Romney would ride the momentum to Florida and beyond, thus becoming the presumptive nominee. As for Texas Congressman Ron Paul, it has been apparent for some time now he is running for "the movement" and not to actually be President. But South Carolina will also define something else: the direction the GOP moves in. If Romney is the nominee, republicans will continue the tradition of choosing the "next in line" establishment candidate. If Gingrich is the nominee, the republicans would have a one-time underdog who won the nomination from debate performances and grassroots support. Certainly in a general election, Romney would have to work to win tea party votes, where as Gingrich would have to win over centrists. Either way, both seem to be electable. Romney has appeal due to his back round in business, where as Gingrich has proven he can debate and propose big ideas and has a track record to back up those ideas. Either way, South Carolina is a defining moment.