2012 is no 1996

Imagine its December 1995. Bob Dole and Steve Forbes lead the pack of GOP candidates for the Iowa caucus. Lamar Alexander and Phil Gramm are second-tier candidates, despite the fact that Gramm is a hero with conservatives. The one candidate who can cause a stir is Pat Buchanan, whose views are vastly different from that of Dole and the establishment. Now fast forward to 2011. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the leading contenders. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are second-tier candidates, slightly ahead of Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman. The one candidate whose views differ vastly from that of the GOP field is Ron Paul. Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary in 1996, in addition to wins in a few other states. Paul is a leading contender in both Iowa and South Dakota. However, comparing 2012 to 1996 is not fair. In '96, the establishment candidate had been a Washington insider for many years, having been the 1976 GOP nominee for Vice President and Senate Leader. The establishment figure in this race is Mitt Romney, a guy who has only spent a decade in politics (despite his 1994 run for U.S. Senate.) The non-establishment candidate in this race is Newt Gingrich, who spent 20 years in elected office and 4 years as Speaker of the House. In 1996, the non-establishment candidate was Steve Forbes, who did spend some time as an advisor to President Reagan but really had no political experience. But perhaps the biggest difference between 2012 and 1996 is the incumbent President. Bill Clinton started off his 1st term as President from the center-left. He did sign tax hikes into law, but he also instituted Don't Ask Don't Tell and supported NAFTA. After the 1994 elections, Clinton moved from the center-left closer to the center. With Speaker Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole, President Clinton worked to balance the federal budget. Clinton ran for re-election as a fiscal conservative. Fast forward to 2011. Barack Obama went from being a seemingly center-left candidate to a far left one. Before republicans took control of congress in 2010, Barack Obama signed a massive $787 billion "stimulus" program into law and an illegal, big government health insurance law into effect. After working with the GOP on a 1 year extension of the Bush tax cuts, Obama went back to his liberal leanings in calling for a millionaire's tax and a second stimulus. There is little doubt that Obama's path to re-election will be far more challenging that Bill Clintons. While President Clinton tried to pass a universal health insurance law, Clinton gave up when he realized the nation opposed his efforts. President Obama's illegal health insurance law was passed despite the opposition of the public. Obama must deal with health insurance during his re-election, where as Bill Clinton did not have to. Furthermore, President Clinton won re-election during a time of record economic growth. President Obama seeks re-election amidst unemployment, food stamps, poverty, and debt that are higher than when he took office. Therefore, whether Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney becomes the GOP nominee, they have a chance of winning. Bob Dole was bound to lose the '96 race from the start.