Tuesday, December 6, 2011

How the GOP wins in '12

It is apparent that the republican nominee for President in 2012 is either going to be Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) or Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA). The question now becomes, when the primary is over, how do they win? Each of them has different strengths and weaknesses and has a slightly different base. Romney is well-liked by fiscal conservatives, moderates, and independents, where as Gingrich enjoys support amongst the grassroots and some more traditional republican voters. It is my belief that if they run an effective campaign, either one could end up winning. However, getting their varies between the two. Gingrich is blunt, good at debates, and has experience to run on. However, his hefty personal baggage and some past statements he has made hurts him. Romney is calm, seen as competent, and a Washington outsider. But his shifts in positions hurt his credibility with some voters. For Gingrich, the path to the white house consists of reaching out to independents, putting aside questions about his past personal life, and being able to capitalize on President Obama's weakness: the economy. To do so, the Former Speaker would be wise to talk about the economy during the time in which he was speaker and to lay out his agenda to the nation. While many conservatives would welcome Gingrich as the nominee, centrists would be more skeptical. To win over independents, Newt Gingrich needs to listen to them and talk to them in a way that is unifying. Mitt Romney would find himself in a similar position as George H.W. Bush did in 1988: he would be considered an "acceptable" nominee, though not exciting like Ronald Reagan. Unlike President Bush though, Romney would not face an easy opponent. Romney is, at present, doing a good job for the general election, he is touting his business credentials and focusing on attacking President Obama on the economy. However, in a general election, Mitt Romney needs to take advantage of social media and become more visible to voters. The bottom line is, Gingrich needs to reach out to independents and effectively make his case, Romney needs to unite the GOP and then run as a Washington outsider. The GOP candidates need to first ensure they have solid polling in states such as Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina that generally lean republican, but supported Obama in 2008. Then, work on getting Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Nevada in the republican column. The priority, however, should be focused on Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Colorado. As far as a running-mate is concerned, Mitt Romney would be advised to pick someone who is more conservative than he is, and Newt Gingrich should try to pick someone younger than he is.

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