Sunday, December 25, 2011

Early state prediction

The following is my final prediction for the margins of victories in early state presidential primaries. I predict a Gingrich Vs. Romney primary for the long haul, but this is it for early states voting before Suepr Tuesday, March 4th. If I am wrong, I will take responsibility, if I am right I'll take credit.

Here we go;

Iowa caucus:
Mitt Romney 23%
Newt Gingrich 20%
Ron Paul 20%
Michele Bachmann 15%
Rick Santorum 12%
Rick Perry 8%
Jon Huntsman 1%
* Santorum and Bachmann withdrawal

New Hampshire:
Mitt Romney 40%
Newt Gingrich 19%
Ron Paul 18%
Jon Huntsman 13%
Rick Santorum 6%
Rick Perry 5%
* Jon Huntsman withdrawals

South Carolina:
Newt Gingrich 35%
Mitt Romney 30%
Ron Paul 25%
Rick Perry 9%
* Rick Perry withdrawals

Florida:
Newt Gingrich 40%
Mitt Romney 38%
Ron Paul 21%

Nevada:
Mitt Romney 42%
Newt Gingrich 38%
Ron Paul 27%

Maine:
Mitt Romney 65%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 8%

Colorado:
Newt Gingrich 40%
Mitt Romney 39%
Ron Paul 20%

Minnesota:
Mitt Romney 40%
Newt Gingrich 37%
Ron Paul 22%

Missouri:
Newt Gingrich 42%
Mitt Romney 38%
Ron Paul 29%

Arizona: (toss-up, no prediction)
Newt Gingrich 40%
Mitt Romney 40%
Ron Paul 19%

Washington:
Mitt Romney 60%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 14%


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