Newt Gingrich: Possible GOP nominee

Iowa caucus voters polled say they want Ron Paul. In New Hampshire, the favorite is Mitt Romney. However, those two states are only two of fifty. Polls released in Virgina and New York today show Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack. Polls released recently also show Gingrich as the front-runner in a lot of other states, including the early voting states of South Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida. Just because Gingrich might lose Iowa and New Hampshire means little. First of all, Iowa is a state without a large population. New Hampshire allows both independents and republicans to vote in the GOP primary, and Mitt Romney has put a lot of effort into winning there. It is unlikely Paul or Romney would be able to carry their momentum to South Carolina. Despite the fact that South Carolina allows independents to vote in the GOP primary, it is a solidly republican state unlike Iowa and New Hampshire. It is unlikely South Carolina voters would want to see a man from Massachusetts as their party's presidential nominee. South Carolina's large veteran population will make it a tough win for Ron Paul, whose non-interventionist foreign policy is out of touch with many main stream conservatives and republicans. Newt Gingrich, who is seen by the voters as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, represented neighboring Georgia in congress for 20 years, and his grassroots, anti-establishment message will help him in the palmetto state. While South Carolina should be an easier win for the Former House Speaker, Florida will be difficult. Florida is not as solidly conservative as South Carolina, but the Newt Gingrich versus Mitt Romney contest there might resemble the Marco Rubio versus Charlie Crist contest of 2010, though granted Romney is more conservative than Crist, but still more moderate than Rubio and Gingrich. If Gingrich can rally enough support from grassroots and tea party conservatives in Florida, he can carry the state. If enough independents get out to vote, Mitt Romney will carry Florida. Those who believe Newt Gingrich is in a "slide" fail to realize this remains a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney, though Ron Paul is likely to win the Iowa caucuses. After Iowa, the only state Paul may have a chance in is Nevada, but his polling numbers there to this point have been unimpressive. As candidates such as Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann drop out, there votes will go to Newt Gingrich. Combined, these candidates have around 20% of the GOP vote. Jon Huntsman's exit from the race would benefit Mitt Romney, but he'd be lucky to represent 2% of the GOP vote. Ron Paul supporters are likely to support Gary Johnson as the libertarian party's 2012 nominee. So, this GOP primary is very much a Gingrich VS. Romney race in 49 out of 50 states, the exception being Iowa where Ron Paul can have his 10 minutes of fame.